EU-Iceland defense partnership, referendum update, and the first internal security report

Hello,

This edition covers a month in which Iceland signed a new security declaration with the EU, navigated a more turbulent relationship with Washington, and set a date for its EU referendum. It also confronted security questions that would have seemed remote not long ago: foreign-state intelligence activity at home, GPS jamming on a government flight, and whether an attack on critical infrastructure would trigger Article 5.

1. Iceland signs security and defence declaration with the EU

Iceland and the EU signed a security and defence declaration last month, making Iceland the ninth country to do so, alongside Norway, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The text opens a framework for closer dialogue: annual official-level consultations, possible invitations to higher-level EU meetings, and potential access for Icelandic firms to parts of the EU defence market and industrial base. It is non-binding and carries no financial commitments or obligation to join EU programmes.

Compared with Norway's equivalent, signed in May 2024, Iceland's text is thinner. Norway's reflects active participation in EU defence structures, industry, and operations. Iceland's focuses on exploring possibilities and deepening cooperation rather than firm commitments.

2. Iceland sets an EU referendum date as opinion remains split

Iceland plans to hold a referendum on 29 August on whether to resume European Union accession talks, suspended in 2013. Polling shows a divided public on the broader membership question: a Gallup survey for Viðskiptablaðið, among the strongest anti-accession results in years, puts 47% opposed, 40% in favour, 13% undecided. On the narrower question of resuming negotiations, polls give a small majority in favour, the gap within a few percentage points. Parliament must approve the enabling resolution before 29 May for the vote to proceed.

A yes vote begins a long sequence. Negotiations would resume on the outstanding chapters, with fisheries the likely sticking point. Any deal would need European Parliament approval, then a second Icelandic referendum. Ratification would require constitutional amendments, which Icelandic law requires two successive parliaments to approve, with a general election in between. Only then could Alþingi formally confirm membership, alongside ratification by all current EU member states.

The negotiation phase itself need not take long. Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir puts it at "a year and a half." Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has signalled she would move quickly, calling Iceland a potential special case: the necessary reforms and integration, in her words, "already are there." Þorgerður has framed a no vote as isolation, warning Iceland would be "pretty much alone," and has flagged Brexit-style misinformation as a campaign risk: "Everyone knows about Brexit and all the lies that were put on the table."

3. Iceland and the US reaffirm defence ties as NATO uncertainty grows

Iceland's Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir spoke by phone with US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau on 2 April. Both sides affirmed the bilateral security and defence relationship and expressed interest in deepening it. The call covered the Middle East, Ukraine, and trade and investment ties. It followed her Washington visit in March, where she met senior officials and raised Iceland's position on Greenland's self-determination, support for Ukraine, and the importance of increased NATO attention to the North Atlantic and Arctic.

The exchanges come against an uncertain backdrop. President Trump has said he is considering withdrawing the United States from NATO. Þorgerður Katrín has declined to speculate on what that would mean for Iceland, but the question raises a structural issue: the 1951 bilateral defence agreement is premised on both states being NATO members, putting its status in question should Washington leave the alliance.

4. GRD’s first internal security report brings foreign-state threats into view

The National Intelligence Unit (is. Greiningardeild Ríkislögreglustjóra) of the National Police Commissioner has published its first report on Iceland’s internal security. It says the report was prompted by the fundamental change in Europe’s security environment over the past few years.

It states that unlawful intelligence activity by foreign states is now part of Iceland's security environment. Scale may be smaller than in larger states, but implications can still be significant when activity touches government decisions, senior offices of state, critical infrastructure, or work linked to Iceland's international commitments.

The same logic runs through the sections on hybrid threats, sabotage, and critical infrastructure. GRD assesses that Europe faces the highest risk of sabotage since the Second World War, and frames Iceland's exposure as a function of interdependence rather than size: pressure on one critical system can spread quickly to others. The report points less to any single headline measure than to a more capable state apparatus: one better able to detect hostile activity early, protect sensitive systems, and assess foreign access to infrastructure and technology with greater care.

5. GPS jamming hits plane carrying Prime Minister

Details have emerged of a GPS jamming incident involving the Icelandic Coast Guard aircraft carrying Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir to Poland in February. On approach to Rzeszów, a hub for military logistics supporting Ukraine, navigation systems showed the aircraft significantly displaced from its actual position. Auðunn Kristinsson, the Coast Guard's director of strategy and development, called it a symptom of a changed security environment: hybrid threats, GPS jamming, vessels transmitting false positions, and growing concern about subsea infrastructure now sit alongside the Coast Guard's traditional fisheries and rescue mandate in its operational picture.

The incident fits a documented regional pattern. Across a four-month period, more than a quarter of the 123,000 flights tracked by Swedish and Baltic air traffic authorities reported GPS interference.

6. Iceland joins EU secure satellite programmes with Norway

Iceland and Norway have signed an agreement with the EU to join GOVSATCOM and IRIS², giving both access to the Union’s secure satellite communications programmes. For Iceland, the rationale is redundancy: external communications depend on a handful of submarine cables, and satellite connectivity adds backup for government, emergency services, and critical infrastructure operators, especially in remote areas.

The agreement also ties Iceland more closely to the EU in a specific space and security capability. Iceland will have observer status in committees and working groups rather than a full governance role, and the agreement leaves open a later Icelandic contribution through ground stations or related facilities.

7. Iceland stays outside French nuclear deterrence talks

Iceland is not part of the French discussions on nuclear deterrence in Europe. Speaking to RÚV. Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir said Iceland would do what was needed as an active NATO ally to "strengthen and reinforce NATO's defences," but ruled out nuclear weapons on Icelandic soil. Asked whether Iceland might join such talks later, she said it was always natural to have the conversation, but added that Icelandic security would not necessarily be strengthened by "nuclearisation in the High North."

8. Scholar says Greenland crisis could pull Iceland further into focus

In an interview with state broadcaster RÚV after a roundtable in Iceland convened by Varða and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Nordics, Danish security scholar Lise Wiederholt Christensen said the Greenland crisis reflects a wider change in Arctic security. NATO has kept a lower profile in the region for decades, she argued, but that is changing as allies respond to US pressure and to concerns about Russian and Chinese activity. In that context, Denmark is being pushed into a more central Arctic security role at the same time as it tries to hold together both NATO and the US commitment to it. 

Her message for Iceland was direct. Iceland is not Greenland, but geography still matters. As she put it: “Because of your geography, Iceland might be the centre of attention in the coming years, also in defence and security.” She linked that not only to Greenland, but to a broader shift in US foreign policy and to intensifying great-power competition in the North Atlantic. She also pointed to a parallel trend in northern Europe: more bilateral and minilateral cooperation as confidence in NATO’s wider framework comes under strain.

9. Foreign minister says Iceland’s main vulnerability is critical infrastructure

Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir stated earlier this month that the most likely target of any future attack on Iceland would be critical infrastructure rather than conventional military force. Speaking at the annual meeting of Samorka, the federation of Icelandic energy and utility companies, she pointed to energy infrastructure, subsea cables, radar stations, the internet, and Iceland's wider external connections. Distance, she argued, no longer protects Iceland in the way many once assumed.

She also raised a harder question about deterrence. In her words, it is not self-evident that an attack on critical infrastructure would trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, since the threshold remains high. That puts more weight on resilience at home. Ahead of the meeting, Samorka reported that 62% of member companies had increased security spending over the past year, 76% had made investments aimed at strengthening resilience, and total investment in security and resilience now stands at ISK 12.1 billion. At the same time, 82% of Samorka’s members said current legislation hampers such investment.

10. Iceland steps up its legal diplomacy

Over the past month, Iceland has put more weight behind the international legal order on which a small state like it depends. On 12 March, it intervened in South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, the first time Iceland has joined a contentious case before the court. On 28 March, Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir visited the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea in Hamburg following Iceland’s recent declaration accepting the tribunal’s jurisdiction in disputes under the Law of the Sea Convention. And finally, on 15 April, Iceland confirmed participation in the Council of Europe steering committee for a special tribunal on the crime of aggression against Ukraine.

For Iceland these are not marginal steps. A small state with a large maritime zone and limited hard-power tools has strong reasons to invest in courts and legal mechanisms that constrain larger actors and clarify obligations. That logic ran through the government's language on the Israel case, framed as Iceland "using its voice in support of international law."

11. Iceland and Canada launch bilateral dialogue on security and Arctic affairs

Iceland and Canada held a bilateral dialogue in Reykjavík on 23–24 March focused on international affairs, security, and defence. The talks covered the Arctic and North Atlantic security environment, NATO preparedness, Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Middle East, Arctic Council cooperation, and scope for increased bilateral cooperation in the region. Iceland also presented its newly adopted security policy, and the Canadian delegation visited Keflavík air base.

The meeting came eight days after the prime ministers of the Nordic countries and Canada agreed in Oslo to deepen cooperation and meet more regularly. At that meeting, Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir said Iceland had “certainly felt the pressure” and the increased strategic movement around it, including over Greenland. She added that NATO’s focus had shifted northwards, that Arctic security and Arctic opportunities had become more salient, and that Iceland intended to be “a major player” in that space.

12. JEF turns north as Iceland prepares to host next summit

At the Joint Expeditionary Force summit in Helsinki on 26 March, Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir argued that the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic and the Arctic now form part of the same security picture. Speaking afterwards, she said Iceland’s North Atlantic location gives it a distinct role as allies map defence and response in the north. Leaders also agreed that Iceland will host the JEF summit next year for the first time. Kristrún said that would give Iceland a chance to show how its own defence model works and to build understanding for an approach that is, in her words, “somewhat unconventional.”

The summit also agreed to deepen support for Ukraine through the JEF–Ukraine Enhanced Partnership, including the participation of Ukrainian units in the JEF LION exercises later this year. It also strengthened the group’s focus on the Arctic, High North, North Atlantic and Baltic Sea, alongside drones, hybrid threats and Russia’s shadow fleet. Iceland’s own readout placed the same emphasis on a more northerly focus in JEF security and defence cooperation.

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