Tímarit Vörðu #2 - Leading in the Arctic
Hello,
The second issue of Tímarit Vörðu, Varða’s magazine on national security, is out. Its theme, “Leiðandi á norðurslóðum” (Leading in the Arctic), references Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s words from last year. In October 2025 she said Iceland should take a leading role in how defence and trade develop in the Arctic: “We want to cooperate, of course, but above all to lead in our own region.” We asked a minister, an MP, people from the business sector and academics to evaluate what it would mean for Iceland to lead in its own region. Norway’s ambassador provides an overview of how Norway has approached the same goal.
Unlike the first issue, this one is bilingual. Every article appears in both English and Icelandic, in print and online.
1. The environment minister: ocean currents as national security
Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Minister of the Environment, Energy and Climate, explains why the government referred the risk of a weakening or collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to the National Security Council in September 2025. As far as we know, no other state had taken that step. Fisheries, hydropower, transport and supply chains all depend on the North Atlantic’s present climate, and “in the most severe scenarios, adaptation will be impossible for Icelandic society.” His bottom line: “cutting emissions is the first line of defence.”
2. Nearest neighbours: two proposals on increased West Nordic cooperation
Bryndís Haraldsdóttir, a member of Alþingi (Iceland’s parliament) and former President of the Nordic Council, wants West Nordic cooperation to become a cornerstone of Iceland’s Arctic policy. She makes two proposals: Iceland should lead the push for Greenland, the Faroes and Åland to take full part in formal Nordic cooperation through the current revision of the Helsinki Treaty, and it should sign a trade agreement with Greenland within this parliamentary term. On Washington she is blunt about Trump’s designs on Greenland: “His rhetoric is inexcusable. Allies should not speak to one another like that.”
3. Greenland’s opportunity, on Greenlanders’ terms
Heiðar Guðjónsson, economist and chairman of Íslandsbanki, argues that Greenland’s path out of its colonial history depends on lasting investment more than on who guarantees its defence. Icelanders are already among the most active foreign players there, from Eimskip and Icelandair to Amaroq’s Nalunaq gold mine. He proposes a free trade agreement between Greenland, Iceland and the United States, and an Icelandic offer of institutional know-how on property rights, land registers and resource licensing, on Greenland’s terms: “our role is to be useful, not to replace anyone.”
4. Between China and the allies
Guðbjörg Ríkey Th. Hauksdóttir, programme manager at the University of Iceland’s Institute of International Affairs and a Varða Fellow, argues that Iceland needs a public China policy “before pressure from other states shapes one for it.” So far, the policy has developed on a case by case basis: the refused Nubo land bid, the 2013 free trade agreement, and the Chinese research station at Kárhóll. China is now one of Iceland’s largest source of imports, about 12% of the total. She proposes that the Foreign Minister put a published China policy before Alþingi in spring 2027.
5. Iceland’s lifeline: transport as national security
Ísak Einar Rúnarsson, head of policy at the Confederation of Icelandic Enterprise (SA), argues that for an island state, connections to the outside world are a matter of survival, yet no central authority is responsible for keeping them alive in normal times. The National Security Policy doesn’t mention transport at all. Operators are squeezed by wage increases, domestic regulation, and EU climate schemes: a Frankfurt–Boston flight via Keflavík pays emissions charges on about 40% of the route, while a direct flight pays none. He wants transport written into the National Security Policy by 2028.
6. Municipalities: much responsibility, little involvement
Bjarni Már Magnússon, attorney at Polestar Legal and a Varða Fellow, notes that Iceland’s first defence and security policy doesn’t mention municipalities, even though the fiscal plan counts their spending towards Iceland’s NATO 1.5% target. He points out, that although defence is managed at the national level, critical capabilities like emergency response, civil defence planning, and zoning, are all the responsibility of municipalities. His principle: “responsibility, authority, information and funding must go together.”
7. Norway’s ambassador: percentages do not deter
In the magazine’s concluding article, Cecilie Willoch, Norway’s Ambassador to Iceland, describes how her country, on Russia’s doorstep, turns spending into capability. Norway reached 3.4% of GDP on core defence in 2026. Even more useful to understand is their method: frigates bought jointly with the UK, submarines with Germany and Canada, and the maritime initiative announced in Ankara, which Iceland joined. But spending in itself is not enough, the ambassador notes: “percentages do not deter. Capabilities do.”
The full issue is at timarit.varda.org. The print edition carries every article in English and Icelandic. Subscribe here to get future editions delivered to your door. As ever, feel free to forward to potentially interested parties.
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